If Nintendo (Wii) wins this gen...

[jstam]

rubido said:

Legend11 said:
I think the thing we've learned in videogames is that things that look like a sure bet don't always turn out as expected. I mean during the SNES days who could have predicted that a new player would enter the console wars and dominate like Sony did? Who could have predicted Square leaving Nintendo for Sony? Who during the PS2's first 3 years could have predicted that Nintendo would come back and dominate? Sure the Wii is doing amazing but that doesn't guarantee the Wii 2 will be top dog, in fact as we've seen it doesn't guarantee anything.

Not that they will be top dog. But they would have the best chances of being the top dog. At least it garantees that.

The two changes I have witnessed for top dog have been Nintendo -> Sony and Sony -> Nintendo. They both happened because the top dog screwed up and the underdog did everything right.

Nintendo -> Sony: Nintendo kept cartridges. Small space and higher risk due to cartridge costs. Sony had low cost publishing with cds.

Sony -> Nintendo: Sony went for high cost development and high cost console. Nintendo for low cost development and innovation.

Having witnessed the last change, this one is just too similar.

Usually, top dogs don't lose their spot just because someone else has something better (look at the iPod). They also have to make big mistakes on the way. So, it doesn't mean they will continue in the lead, like you said. But they have the highest chances for it.

 damn straight.

 

if nintendo wins this gen (comfortably) then it will be up to nintendo to loose next gen by rising development costs or something else that will piss 3rd parties of