By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
makingmusic476 on 22 October 2008
Edit Thread
HappySqurriel said:
makingmusic476 said:

A couple of points I'd like to make:

  1. You assume that the market will cap at 200 million this generation. I could see the Wii alone surpassing the 200 million mark (though 150-180 is more likely).  I believe that the majority of ps2 owners are being split between the 360 and ps3 (just look at the sales of Madden, GTA, etc.), and that the majority of the Wii's sales stem from "blue ocean" gamers, and that many more of these new gamers will be brought into the fold before the gen is out.  I could see this gen easily breaking the 250 million mark for total consoles sold.

  2. The ps3 is still very expensive in all regions ($399 USD, etc.), and there is plenty of room to grow sales via price cuts.  The 360 has used the price cut strategy to the fullest in Europe and Japan, and Microsoft has little left they can do in these regions.  Aside from a brief spike from Star Ocean 4 in Japan, North America is really all Microsoft has left.

  3. The bell curve, as Kitler pointed out, does exist.  If you expect the 360 to be some amazing anomoly, then I can't help you there.
  4. The ps3 still has two "system sellers" in it's deck, in the form of GT5 for Europe and FFXIII for Japan. 

 

The only thing I wanted to point out that I thought was (most likely) false was that "the majority of the Wii's sales stem from "blue ocean" gamers" ...

There are no doubts that there are a lot of people who bought the Wii and haven't owned a home console in quite a while ... but all of the people I know who own XBox 360's and PS3's also own a Wii, on most web-sites and web-forums Wii owners outnumber XBox 360 or PS3 owners, and high quality (well known) 'Core' games on the Wii are selling at a very fast rate and seeing very high sales.

In other words, it is highly likely that the majority of Wii owners are conventional gamers who (probably) owned a PS2, XBox, Gamecube, Dreamcast or Gaming PC in the previous generation.

 

I guess "majority" wasn't the right word to use, as it does in fact imply greater than 51%.  My main point was that the industry is increasing rapidly this gen, and it's primarily a result of the Wii's success.

Edit: I changed "majority" to "a very large portion" in my post.