makingmusic476 on 22 October 2008
A couple of points I'd like to make:
- You assume that the market will cap at 200 million this generation. I could see the Wii alone surpassing the 200 million mark (though 150-180 is more likely). I believe that the majority of ps2 owners are being split between the 360 and ps3 (just look at the sales of Madden, GTA, etc.), and that a very large portion of the Wii's sales stem from "blue ocean" gamers, and that many more of these new gamers will be brought into the fold before the gen is out. I could see this gen easily breaking the 250 million mark for total consoles sold.
- The ps3 is still very expensive in all regions ($399 USD, etc.), and there is plenty of room to grow sales via price cuts. The 360 has used the price cut strategy to the fullest in Europe and Japan, and Microsoft has little left they can do in these regions. Aside from a brief spike from Star Ocean 4 in Japan, North America is really all Microsoft has left.
- The bell curve, as Kitler pointed out, does exist. If you expect the 360 to be some amazing anomoly, then I can't help you there.
- The ps3 still has two "system sellers" in it's deck, in the form of GT5 for Europe and FFXIII for Japan.
