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kitler53 on 22 October 2008
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Squilliam said:
kitler53 said:
here's how: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php

ps3 is tracking above the 360. the 360 had a year head start - that means the 360 started selling a year before the ps3. that also means sales for the 360 should peak a year before the ps3. that means the 360 should stop selling a year before the ps3.

sure, the 360 is selling well in comparison to the ps3 at the moment but mark my words on the back end of this generation the ps3 will pass the 360's overall sales.

Why does a years head start matter? The Xbox 360 isn't going to stop selling a year sooner because it came out a year earlier, it just means that the Xbox 360 will have another year to sell consoles to the general public/sell software. The PS3/Xbox 360 are functionally equal when it comes to playing games. Multiplatform software is equal and the further we get into this generation the less the console buying population will care about a few extra pixels/levels of MSAA or a slightly more vibrant texture. IIRC the Xbox 360/PS3 have sold identically since the PS3s launch.

One ace in the hole the Xbox 360 does have is that it has a tessellator which is forward compatible to direct x 11. This unit helps weaker/slower GPUs a lot more than stronger ones by taking the load off memory with far smaller assets and by helping the system make better use of its pixel shaders. These two areas are pretty obvious critical shortcomings when comparing your minimum PC specification of 2010/11 to the Xbox 360 and will obviously extend the functional life of the system somewhat. It effectively works in a similar fashion to the Cell + RSX combination with the added bonus of reducing ram usage though it doesn't increase computational performance by the same extent so thats a wash/balanced.

 

because 6 previous generations of experience say so.

gen 6 graph over 5 years: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=XB&reg3=All&weeks=312&weekly=1

gen 5 over 5 years: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=N64&reg1=All&cons2=PS&reg2=All&cons3=&reg3=------&weeks=312&weekly=1

the generation losers: peak sales around year 3, sales stop by end of year 5.

the generation winner: peak sales in year 3-4, sales maintain much longer than year 5.

the 360 is finishing up year 3 - expect a year over year drop next year and a near hault in sales the following year.

the ps3 is finishing up year 2 - expect a year over year increase next year and then a drop the following year.