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Menago KF said:
I doubt that GT 5 will pass the 10 million mark. All the big franchises, despite having the "wow" factor of better gfx etc, had pale sales in comparison to the PS2 era. The market is more diversified so i would expect GT 5 to end on 8 million copies sold, if not less.

 

Some franchises have sold better than they did last gen, likely because of said "wow" factor, most notably DMC and MGS:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Devil+May+Cry+3+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Devil+May+Cry+4+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=Devil+May+Cry+4+-+X360&weeks=100

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Metal+Gear+Solid+3%3A+Snake+Eater+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Metal+Gear+Solid+4%3A+Guns+Of+The+Patriots+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

BOTH versions of DMC4 are trending above DMC3, and MGS4 is only just now entering into its first holiday season, compared to MGS3 which was released during the holidays in NA and JP.

The "wow" factor has a serious effect on major franchises, and it's why GT3 outsold GT2, why FFX outsold both FFVIII and FFIX, etc. etc., all despite releasing on MUCH smaller userbases than their predecessors.