Kojima: Japanese game industry is in trouble

[johnsobas]

Paul_Warren said:

The Wii really doesn't have that many games coming out this holiday season that are going to sell that well. I don't really expect Animal Crossing or Wii Music to do as well as past Wii successes. Gears of War 2 will probably sell better than the PS3 version of MGS 4 alone but not if MGS 4 also appears on the 360 at some point in time and you combine the two its PS3 and 360 totals. Certain things could also lower Gears 2's ability to sell that well: If Resistance 2 comes out with high scores that generate just as much hype across the board for it as Gears 2, then Gears will sell well but not as astronomically well as the first one did because it would have stronger competition.  Or if the almost unthinkable occurs and Gears 2 somehow winds up with lower than expected review scores.   I think Fable 2 is only going to wind up as mid to high 8 rated game, so I'm not expecting high sales in the end for that game. It has done well in pre-orders but only high B review scores could have an effect on its sales much as they did on Too Human's final total though to a lower degree because I don't expect Fable 2's review scores to suddenly dip down that low. Banjo Kazooie is a dark horse but its sales will depend upon what type of hype is generated by its ratings.

Right so after the holiday season when Wii wipes the table with PS3 software and beats 360 software by a pretty good margin you'll be saying the same thing?  Wii beat 360 software last holiday season with a smaller userbase while being severely supply constrained.