It will happen in 08, with the line up they have outsellign the 360 by 500k will be a walk in the park. While 360 will sale less and less as PS3 takes potential buyer away form it. Gran Turismo 5 will literally kill the 360 in europe.
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Now who's had too many beers? Outselling the Xbox 360 by 500K a month is no walk in the park (not even for Nintendo). By the way, GTA4 is coming out for the Xbox 360, as well.
My predictions:
1) The Wii will start losing it's appeal sometime in 2008 and you will be able to find them anywhere. The price will drop to a still too high $199. By early 2010, the gimmicky Wii-mote will not be enough to offset the slightly upgraded Gamecube graphics and Nintendo will have to drop to $99, at which point they will annouce either a replacement console with decent graphics or that they will be a handheld-only hardware company.
2) The Xbox 360 will have a huge Christmas 2007 in North America and a fair amount of success in Europe, but the stubborn Japanese will never swallow their pride to buy the Xbox 360 in any meaningful way. Although Japan hurts Xbox 360's worldwide sales, overall it won't change the current position by much (either Xbox 360 or Wii will be number one worldwide by a slight margin). Microsoft will be caught a little off guard in 2008 and lose ground to $ony, but will rebound in 2009 to take back the top spot.
3) The P$3 will have a decent Holiday 2007 in all markets, but remain in third place. After a jump in 2008 (with another price drop to $500 for the 80 GB), $ony will rest on it's laurels and lose ground in 2009. Another price drop in 2009: $400 for the 200 GB model, but they won't take the crown from Microsoft until 2011, when the next generation starts with Microsoft and possibly Nintendo. $ony barely makes their entry in 2012.
