So we have another week, and on the heels of a major X360 announcement with the price drop. This is the calm before the storm.
| This Wk | Last Wk | Name | Wk Sales | Total Sales | % Drop | Wks in Release | Expected LTD |
| #1 | #1 | NCAA Football 2008 | 48,989 | 516,823 | -54.0% | 3 | 1,000,000 |
| #2 | #2 | Nascar 2008 | 30,239 | 100,398 | -57.0% | 2 | 250,000 |
| #3 | #3 | Guitar Hero 2 | 27,212 | 1,060,686 | +1.8% | 21 | 1,500,000+ |
| #4 | #4 | All Pro Football 2k8 | 11,599 | 88,336 | -48.9% | 3 | 235,000 |
| #5 | #6 | Gears of War | 11,562 | 2,850,725 | -3.4% | 50 | 3,500,000 |
| #6 | #11 | Rainbow Six Vegas | 10,699 | 1,049,067 | +17.5% | 45 | 1,200,000 |
| #7 | #5 | Overlord | 10,689 | 159,357 | -15.2% | 6 | 255,000 |
| #8 | #7 | The Darkness | 9,803 | 213,815 | -17.0% | 6 | 320,000 |
| #9 | #10 | Call of Duty 3 | 9,696 | 1,119,536 | -5.0% | 44 | 1,300,000 |
| #10 | #9 | Forza Motorsports 2 | 9,370 | 472,755 | -8.9% | 9 | 650,000 |
One can only wonder: with titles dropping so little (outside the new releaseses), how well will the older (10k area) software fare next week? Unlike the PS3, the X360 purchasers are going to be interested in games, and not HD-DVDs.
But I digress, overall, the week was fairly good. NCAA 08 dropped as expected, but managed 500k. Expect it to start seeing more typical (30-40%) drops for a week or two, and then level off once NCAA Football season starts. 1m is still possible, as it's more than half of there. Not only this, NCAA08 is already to 80% of it's predicessor's sales in just 3 weeks; very impressive.
Outside of this, drops were normal. Guitar Hero 2 got a small boost. Rainbow Six got a massive 17% boost. Possibly due to a price drop preparing for the hardware drop? Also, most everything else (sans the 3wk or newer games), had very very good drops.
I ask this of the X360 owners: which older games will get the biggest boost from the hardware pricecut? I think Gears will probably be the biggest boost. It's still the X360s killer app; and with H3 not out yet, perspective X360 owners might wind up with it to hold them over until H3 launches. Next, I think Guitar Hero 2 will see itself go above the 30k/wk mark for a little bit of time. Also, with few other racing options, I think Forza2 might stabilize in the 10k/wk mark for awhile.
| This Wk | Last Wk | Name | Wk Sales | Total Sales | % Drop | Wks in Release | Expected LTD |
| #1 | #1 | Elder Scrolls: Oblivion | 10,030 | 53,536 | -77.1% | 2 | 100,000 |
| #2 | #2 | Ghost Recon: AW2 | 1,508 | 16,251 | -28.6% | 4 | 21,500 |
| #3 | #3 | Trusty Bell: Chopins Dream | 1,159 | 66,695 | -12.6% | 8 | 80,000 |
| #4 | #4 | Saints Row | 560 | 16,508 | -15.6% | 7 | 18,500 |
| #5 | #5 | Blue Dragon | 536 | 194,997 | -9.5% | 35 | 200,000+ |
| #6 | #6 | Forza Motorsports 2 | 472 | 26,766 | -7.5% | 11 | 30,000 |
| #7 | #7 | Viva Pinata | 440 | 18,156 | +14.2% | 30 | 20,000 |
| #8 | #8 | Dead Rising | 286 | 79,551 | -15.7% | 45 | 80,000 |
A few notes about this week:
#1 Oblivion has done the impossible (atleast for an X360 game). 2 consecutive back-to-back weeks in the top 50. No game thus far for the x360 has managed this feat. Even Blue Dragon failed to reach the top 50 in it's second week (although it did manage getting back in, and charted at 39 in week 4). Even more impressive is how good it's second week is: 10k is very good for the game. Not only this, I believe it's trending to have good legs despite it's massive debut.
Why is that? According to Shinobi (which I assume is true), Oblivion sold 35,000 of it's 43,000 copies day-1. That means it only sold 4,000 per day for the next 2 days. Over the next week, Oblivion managed 1,432 units each day of a 7 day week. This means it's actual day-to-day drop was actually 65% - far lower than the 77% drop we see. This means Oblivion might shed 50% or less this coming week - a very good sign for Western RPGs, and X360 software.
#2. Graw continues to stomp it's predicessor. It's well past GRAW 1 now, and is in range of getting near Call of Duty 3 and Rainbow Six numbers. However, don't expect it to just stay on the charts for a long time - like Saints Row.
#3. Trusty Bell - ioi adjusted the numbers from the past few weeks. This put it to #2 for the year for the X360. Not only this, sales seems to be stabilizing. It should stay in the 800-1200 area for quite some time. Also, it should, within a few weeks, overtake Blue Dragon as the top-selling X360 game of the year.
Outside of the top 3, nothing real amazing. SR and DR keep dropping like rocks. VP, FM2, and BD continue having some sort of strength to stay in the top 200. VP is suprisingly strong. It's hovered around the 500 area for months now. IMO, I think that a VP Party Animals game in Japa would do real well.
For those that care; the top 5 X360 games of 2007 in Japan:
| Blue Dragon (2006) | 68,232 |
| Trusty Bell: Chopins Dream | 66,695 |
| Gears of War | 66,292 |
| Elder Scrolls: Oblivion | 53,536 |
| The IdolM@ster | 49,555 |
The great thing is that compared to last year, this year's top titles are nor only consistent, but far outweighing last year's. Last year, we had: DOA 45,595, RR6 35918, LP 43,050
| Blue Dragon | 126,765 |
| Dead or Alive X2 | 63,859 |
| Dead Rising | 54,017 |
| Dead or Alive 4 (2005) | 45,595 |
| Lost Planet | 43,050 |
So ironically, only #1 Blue Dragon (on both charts) is the only game that sold better in the top 5 versus last year. This is remarkable in the fact that the top-5 is so much stronger in 2007. Best yet, 3 of the 5 titles are are still charting.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
