proof that nintendo is stock piling wiis?

[Just_Ben]

I don't think Nintendo is stockpiling. There are three main arguments for stockpiling.

#1 Its normal in the console industry.

Yes it is. Theres are reason for it! Lets say you think you can sell 12 Million Consoles in one Year. So you produce them. You set up production to 1 Million a month. Problem is, you won't sell 1 million a month. You will sell 3 Millions in December, 2 Millions in November, 1 Millions in October. Means 6 Million in three month. So in the other 9 month you sell 333 k a week. Lets say the retailers just order what they sell, because they have enough units in stock. Well you overproduce 777k consoles a month the first 9 month of the year. You have to stockpile them. You don't have a choice. You just can up production for 3 Month insanely and go down afterworlds.

 

#2 Nintendo needs to stockpile. The "average dude" now looking for a Wii, will keep locking. The average gift buyer on Christmas won't.

This argument caught me, but if you think about it, you find the flaw. The "average dude" now looking for it, will look in November. If the Wii shipment increases, who do you think will get the shipped Wii. The gift buyer or the "average dude"? Who will get in line for the Wii? Most likely the "average dude". 

 

#3 Nintendo has to stockpile. With the current shipments they don't meet their goal. And upping production that fast would cost to much.

Nintendo wasn't stockpiling in February, where they? They already delivering more than in the begin of this year. So they have upped production. If they already stockpiling, they would have upped production already quite more than impressive. So the argument is: They wouldn't invest such money, but already have? Don't make sense to me at all. The next thing is, they also need more unit next year. Or do you think Nintendo will under producing in the entire lifespan of the Wii?

 

So i don't think Nintendo is stockpiling and shipping every peace they can produce. And i expect a massive increase of shipments this month. At the end of this month it will be 80 k more per week. I expect these units mainly to hit America (65 k).  Japan gets 10 k, Europe gets 5 (Since demand is satisfied for the moment).

 I expect the next boost to begin in mid September (100 k) hitting mainly America and Japan. This boost will be done (means reaching 100 k) at begin of October. 

At the end of October the next boost will begin (170 k) hitting all region (will be done in begin of December).

 I made an table. My scenario means they would ship (including last week) total 9.5 Millions till end of year. These numbers are the minimum i expect. Could be it go up to 12 Million shipped till end of the year.  

 I think in mid of January Nintendo though, the demand will fade away and they will be able to stockpile but not fade enough to stockpile enough, so lets up production a bit. These units hit the world at begin of April (Three and a half month later). At that moment nintendo though: Ok, Europe is satisfied for the moment, but America and Japan isn't. The demand will fade away a little, but hell whe won't have anything for christmass, lets up production big time (the production boost i excpect for august (Four month later)). Month after Month they realized more and more , it won't fade. And they decided to boost production ever since. But they need time for it. September and October sounds reasonable to me for this extra production line to begin factoring. 

 

Wow. Quite a large post, hopes somebody at least try to read it :)