I think that there's a strong possibility Sonic will be in the final game (That cover is mocked-up though) because they are accepting third-parties based on them appearing on a Nintendo console and Nintendo have said that Sonic is the most-requested third party character. It's just the legal thing between Sega and Nintendo, and M&S at the Olympic games proves that can be done.
It'll certainly increase sales of the game if Sonic is in it.
My prediction for the character list is that they'll throw out all extra characters from Melee, especially clones, so Falco, Ganondorf, Mewtwo, Young Link, Roya and Pichu at least are going.
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