as someone who's working in the industry, i'll say these economists are, using a chinese proverb, "talking about military strategy on paper". just because these are phds and economists professors doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. especially when it's economics.
am i biased? probably. but it's also because i see people around me being affected right on the front line, and the very immediate effects.
the problem with all this opposition is simply because the vast majority of people simply don't understand the problem--at all. a journalist that i know of needed to call me to understand what's going on. imagine if the journalist started writing before even knowing what the issue is about.
the average citizen is only beginning to see its impacts. the US auto industry is probably going to be the first real victim in this case if nothing happens, with car loans starting to get turned down.
the amount of ignorance out there is insane. i read about interviews with people on the street and they seem to think that it's the CEO's that are losing money and Washington is giving them back the money. unbelievable the misconception out there.
one thing is for sure: deep recession is sure to result without this "bailout". the worst part is that, there is no guarantee that $700 billion will do much good. i'd say, even with $700 billion, there's a 30% chance we need another $700 billion. that would make the political careers of many of these politicians at serious risk.
there's plenty of blame to go around. maybe only 1% of the population caused this, but the destruction will be felt by everybody. and if everybody just thinks it's none of their business and stands by, guess what, soon enough, it will be.
by and large, $700 billion would be a good investment--but only if accompanied by effective policies and supervision. and as we have learned from iraq, the latter assumption is hardly automatic. and you would just have to hope that paulson and company guesses right most of the time from now on.
the Wii is an epidemic.
