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TWRoO on 29 September 2008
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ZenfoldorVGI said:
Sullla said:
Thanks for the catch on Mario Kart Wii, I edited it into the original post.

ZenfoldorVGI, perhaps we'll see PS3 games appearing here with more frequency as time goes on. All I can do is report the current numbers. I don't think any PS3 exclusive other than Gran Turismo has a realistic shot of making the top ten list though.

 

Some people think LBP will take the market by storm. You don't think it'll earn a spot on that list? The front page predicts that LBP will sell more than Gears 2. Gears 2 will certainly sell more than Gears 1, and Gears 1 is on that list. Therefore by reference, a vast number of people voting think LBP will sell more than Gears 1 or 2.

Given this information, do you think that LBP will make the list, or do you think that fandom and hope might have mislead a lot of peoples votes?

My personal opinion is that LBP will open to above average sales, and have above average legs for a HD game, but I don't think it'll have the legs of a Nintendo game. Japan will be key, if the game takes off over there, it'll have a chance, but  I wouldn't bet any money on that happening. Userbase plays a key role in sales, and you need a significant userbase and strong legs or a vast lump sum at the start to make the top 10 exclusives list. It could skirt 9 or 10 though, who knows.

 I don't think people realize that they're asking LBP to quickly blow by MGS4 when they say that it will outsell Gears 2.

While I can see with your last 2 paragraphs you don't think LBP has a chance.... I shall respond to the first 2 paragraphs.

Do you remember the semi-famous, 12,000+ votes long running poll about best selling game in 2008? (the one that resulted in the position of poll administrator being made because it wasn't updated in months)
Yeah the eventual game with the most votes was Metal Gear Solid 4.... the only one of the list that didn't have a chance in hell. Mario Kart was stone dead last, and yet looks like it might become the best seller (if Wii Fit doesn't have the supply)

So yes fandom and hope is certainly misleading a lot of people votes here too... the most sensible voters will be voting for Wii Music, Animal Crossing and Gears 2.... all of which should at the minimum pass 6 million. Fable 2 won't get near 6 million, Resistance 2 might get near it, but I doubt it will pass it. LBP is an unknown, I'd give a minimum of 2 million, but it could pass 6 million handily too.