As with DVD and other formats before, HW and SW sales help each other synergistically, while market saturation later dampen growth, you always have a more or less irregular sigmoid-like function, what may change is a dilatation or shrinking along time of the function, but the trend is similar, unless dilatation is so big that obsolescence kills the format before it can really take off. But with only a small percentage of the world population with access to connectivity faster than 56kbps and an even smaller part with more than 7Mbps, the only competitor to BD could be not HD contents download, but a physical format faster and with higher capacity than BD, although starting from scratch, it would have even more difficulty than BD to take off and an even smaller time slice before contents download really becomes a viable alternative for everybody.
Contents download will eventually become dominant, but it will take at least 10 years to reach the majority of world population, so there is still room for BD and perhaps even for another optical media format after it, before it happens, before there will be coexistence. Asymmetric connection, 56kbps upload, satellite 20+Mbps download? Be serious, it would be good only for non interactive contents download but it has and will always have horrible latence and it would suck for interactive uses. Anti-digital divide ADSL? Telcos only grant 512kbps and only to a fraction of households not reached by wider band, more than enough for comfortable browsing, quite feasible, although not very fast, SD download, but not enough for HD contents download.
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