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markers said:
2009 is when BD is going to really kick off imo. we will see cheaper players, ps3 will also be cheaper, HD will be a near standard in every home. also i am willing to bet alot of tv shows/movies will be taking advantage of the 50gb and giving the consumer lots of extra's (like tv shows can put more than 1 season on a disk, disney can bundle 5 movies on a disk, etc)

2010 BD will have nearly 50% of the marketshare, by 2012 BD nearly 85%

Heroes: Season 2 [4 Discs / Blu-ray] [Widescreen Subtitle AC3 Dolby] - Blu-ray Disc $54.99 http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8915873&type=product&id=1884461

Heroes: Season 2 [4 Discs] [Widescreen Subtitle AC3 Dolby] - DVD $34.99 http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8915891&st=heros&lp=2&type=product&cp=1&id=1884459

Apparently you forgot that TV shows will be in HD on Blu-ray negating the space advantage.  Obviously they could put a full season of a show in DVD quality on 1 disc but nobody would buy that unless they had a Blu-ray player with a SDTV with no plans to upgrade to a HDTV.  Same argument for multiple movies per disc.

Blu-ray will not take (if at all) off until the content is at a 10% premium over DVD instead of the 50+% it currently is, players are near $100 and HDTVs are in the majority of homes.  The first 2 have a chance of happening by Xmas 2009 but the HDTVs will probably take a while longer.