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I think that $200 or less is the sweet spot for HD/Blu-ray players.  Once they get into that range, you may see a dramatic increase in adoption.

The problem is that for most people, when they get a new HD widescreen TV, going from 4:3 at 480i to 16:9 at 480p is a pretty big jump in quality.  480p may not be HD, but its pretty damn good when you are use to 480i.  I can live with it for a while.  Until the $200 HD player are available.