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A few weeks old article, but I hadn't seen it before. Seems like a reasonable analysis. Though I'm sure Sony was thinking originally that they would have sold about twice as many PS3s as they have. I recall the 6 million by March 2008 comments.

Note the VGCharts reference and the obligatory negative comment about it.

http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/40949

Edit:  Link should be working now.