I mostly agree with you, but I think it's not such a clear line between the hardcore gamers and the Sony-casuals, and it really depends on the definition how big this group is.
But in my eyes, there are a lot of casuals that go into that group of hardcore gamers, altough not being hardcore gamers, i.e. they are not playing a lot, owing only one console per gen and usually don't finish the games. But the important thing is that they are only interested in action/sports/racing games and that Nintendo is untouchable for them because of its kiddie image.
So for the issue I described, it is not really important how much those people play, but what they prefer to play. The word (hardcore) I have chosen was probably wrong, but I can't think up a better one. The important thing is that this group is bigger than 10 million, I expect them to be around 40 million, but this is a very rough guess.
The real casuals are still the bigger group, but they are so difficult to reach that they have not become the main target of the industry during the PS2 generation. If you look at the industry, the most games that are released (and are at least mediocre in quality) are targeting at those gamers I'm trying to describe, and that's why I call them the most important group during last generation.
First, I hope you understand what I'm trying to say, and second, I'm interested what you think about this!







