I think this is a good way of thinking of things. Microsoft seems to be leaving all genres open for third party support, any RPG or Kiddy game will do very well due to lack of other games like it on the console. And Nintendo will have a huge open chunk for M rated games for the Wii. These are good ways of approaching 3rd party advocacy. However Sony may find itself in Nintendo's old shoes as the more it pushes its own first and second party "hardcore" titles the more competition it creates for third party developers.
Either way, I think most 3rd party developers are still living in the last generation of gaming in how they think of things. They've already found themselves empty handed with the Wii when it struck big and now that the PS3 is starting to show a teeny bit of momentum they're probably more confused now than ever.
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