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Also remember that Enchanted Arms will come out in the middle of an incredible dry period for the PS3 in Japan (and for the other consoles to a lesser extent). There probably won't be anything major for the PS3 in Japan for months. Afrika and Battlefield: Bad Company beat most people's expectations for their first weeks in Japan, and I think Eternal Sonata can do the same. Sure, it flopped on the 360, but so do lots of games. I'm going to go with 70k first week, but it's a pretty bare bones estimate.