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There are X amount of people who bought only the 360, for the exclusive games.

There are Y amount of people who bought only the PS3, for the exclusive games.

There are Z who bought both to play all the HD games.

The new console would have a base of X + Y - (1/2)Z, which would turn out to be a lower number than the combined total today (ignoring everything else, like price, delays, etc.)