The whole point of the "can third party games sell" question is "can games sell without being promoted by the first party." The issue is not who made the game, its who is paying to advertise it.
So in this particular discussion, "second party" games should be grouped with "first party" ones. You can bet Sony will promote the hell out of their big "second party" games this year.
If I was a betting man, I'd say Need For Speed. On a WW basis, it outsells Madden by a wide margin, and AFAIK there's no established million-selling franchise among the exclusives coming.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
