Place your bets - when will Wii pass 360?

[shams]

Sqrl said:
Well now that the data for the week ending July 28th is in I just wanted to point out a few things....

First, currently the difference by VGChartz numbers is 414,644 units. This means that the Wii needs to sell more 207,322 each week to get where the 360 is right now. Now if we take into account the 360's movement we end up with something much more like 262,322 units each week to tie where the 360 will be in two weeks.

Considering the current steadiness of 360 numbers I think those numbers are going to be pretty spot on. So with that in mind I think after the next two week's numbers come in we are going to see Wii behind by 280k after the first week and behind by 50k after the second week. And finally passing the 360 with the numbers for the week ending Aug 19th.

I think there is about a 20% chance the Wii can pass it with Aug 12th numbers, but most of that chance hinges on increased shipments for Mario Strikers Charged which I am not entirely convinced will be the case yet.

I worked out the numbers (in that other thread) a few weeks back, and there was very little doubt about the date. If the 360 has a stinker, or the Wii gets another boost to shipments - slight chance of the 12th. But considering the holidays in Japan are over(?), Wii sales should return to normal.

And Madden hitting in 2 weeks should help the 360 (more than the Wii).