Prediction: Wii will hit 17-18 million consoles sold by year's end

[Smash_Brother]

Sqrl said:Good call, I am sure the Wii will only sell 491,000 units a month from now until the end of the year.

/Sarcasm 

Sorry, I forgot this is a site where folks get their jollies off of moonlighting as market analysts. I guess I'd better look at some numbers... 

I'm looking the numbers over and I think they could do 14-15, but that's about it.

The Wii worldwide weekly totals are always ~250k units sold, that gives us about 1 mil per month, but there's only 5 months left in the year and that, added to the current 9.5 mil, only gives us 14.5 mil.

Unless Nintendo is stockpiling (which makes no sense to me as they'll be missing out on potential sales of excellent games like Mario Strikers and Metroid Prime 3 because these games will be long forgotten by the time xmas with SSBB and Mario Galaxy rolls around), then 15 mil is probably what we can expect to see right now.

And no, I don't think they're going to whip some factories out of nowhere and make the 18 mil total because they didn't do that with the DSL which has been sold out for not one but TWO xmases in a row. If they're just NOW sating DSL demand, I doubt the Wii will be any better for a while still.

I'd like to be wrong, as I'm hoping to develop for the Wii some day and it results in a bigger potential customer base, but you'll pardon my skepticism when they had the same problem with the DSL and they should be even easier to manufacture since they're a revision and not a new console.