This Christmas is not only a make-or-break year for the X360, but for the whole industry.
Everyone thinks MS will blunder it, but I really don't think they will. They've been saying since before last Christmas that the battle wasn't in 2006, but during Christmas 2007. Look at it: The X360 has by far, the best lineup of games in history. Ever. I know everyone will hate me for saying it, but the X360 lineup is about as good as the Wii and PS3's combined.
Now, you can argue with me about that point, but it's no just "random chance" that MS is stacking the deck with GTAIV exclusive content, Halo 3, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, Bioshock, and Lost Odyssey exclusives this last quarter. Microsoft, love them or hate them, has really put the biggest, best, most well-balanced year-end lineup in gaming history. Heck, I would say this year's games alone totally trumps the ENTIRE year-end lineup the orig. Xbox ever had.
So then, if MS does drop the price another $50, it's only for the consumers to respond. Which I hope to God they do: The games are just fantastic. GTAIV, H3, Bioshock and Mass Effect are all GOTY contenders, and easily all able to garner 90% rating averages. The Wii, despite great titles, might garner 3, 90% games, and the PS3, 1 90% game in the same time period. This is totally discounting games like GH3, RB, COD4, PGR4, Lost Odyssey, and others.
Now, having said that; it's very possible MS could blunder the whole deal with another issue, or just poor consumer response due to fear of RRODs, or just too much interest in the other systems. It's entirely possible if the Wii was able to put out enough systems, and H3/GTAIV, and such fail to really ignite the X360s userbase.
Nevertheless, having said that, I fully believe with the titles MS has, that they should be able to pull out better sales than the Wii in the US, equal sales with the Wii/PS3 in Europe, and bomb, but not as badly as normal, in Japan. Remember, there are just about 4 to 5 million consoles to be sold ALONE in the US in December. That's alot of friggin' consoles. If the X360 could pull near-PS2 numbers, it could wind up with 2m consoles, while the Wii, PS3 and PS2 scrapped around for the remaining 2-3m consoles, and none able to deal MS the deathblow.
So it really is the biggest year: if MS blunders and sells around what it did last year, it's very unlikely that Devs will continue to release big name IPs for the X360/PS3 combo, as it's pretty much a certainty that if the X360 can't get big sales, the PS3 won't either. That leaves a dominating Wii to carry the rest of the generation, as it easily has the ability to wind up with a 3-4m lead by December if the X360 stumbles, and catapult into console stardom, leaving the X360/PS3 to need years to re-gain their momentum. Holiday 2008 isn't shaping up to be the uber-year, but more of the spoils of war. If MS won 2007 rather handily (3m consoles in December alone), it'd give them enough userbase and sales to get strong dev support in 2008/2009, leaving the X360 to stay close enough to the Wii behemoth through 2008.
If that happened, then a X360/PS3 tagteam combo could limit the Wii's sales in Europe and the US to a 3rd place console in both sectors by late 2008, hampering 3rd party devs in Western markets - forcing the Wii to only hold Stronghold Japan until the inevitable Wii2.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
