You have it backwards with your comments about EA, Squilliam. EA are ALREADY really hurting. They're pulling in record revenue and still taking losses. They don't need all those games to bomb to feel the hurt, they need them all to be huge successes to stop feeling the hurt. Though if any one game could float their boat this holiday, it will be Spore.
It's also ironic that you cite the fact that there's only a handful of mega-publishers as evidence of it being a low-risk industry. If it was low-risk, why do you need to be massive conglomorate just to exist?
We'll find out how bad things are not with sales numbers in the last 2 months of the year, but with financial reports early next year. The sales numbers will look fine, I'm sure. COD5, RB2, GHIV, Gears2, Resist.2, etc., will all sell very well, and there could be big break-out hits like A's Creed last year. Of course the HD developers will still be "alive." But if next year, HD-focused companies report record revenues on those huge games, but barely profit even in the holiday quarter, and big mergers keep coming left and right, that isn't a pretty picture.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
