What does it mean that MS could hold out so much longer on $100 price cut?

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TheBigFatJ said:

Krill said:
This will not end well. OT, I think your bet with DMeisterJ is safe barring a major adjustment with VGChartz figures

 

I thought my best last year with NJ5 was fairly safe too, but Nintendo managed to pull a lot of Wiis from their yellow cheek.  You never really know with bets, but it seems like the common trap people fall into in terms of market share is this: "the market share increased 0.1% and therefore it will reach (insert whatever I want to believe here)" rather than looking at the numbers and saying, "wow, the PS3 needs 2 million more sales beyond the standard 1 in 4 of each console sold to reach 25%."

For example, for the Wii to reach 50% by year's end, it needs to outsell the 360 and PS3 /combined/ by more than 200k per month and yet a lot of people think it can happen.

 

What does that mean?