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TheSource said:

Stickball:

1) One Piece Unlimited Cruise is debuting for Wii on Sept 11. Its currently in the top twenty preorders for Japan (from the same source as the preliminary data). Could do ~30k-60k week one.

2) Infinite Undiscovery preorders are ~30kish right now based on the same set of info. Tales preorders were ~65k a week before launch (which is where we are now for IU). I think IU will likely do 48k-55k week one.

3) When Tales launched, 360 had supply issues. But, if it hadn't, my theory is the roof would have been somewhere in the 30-45k range. You have to remember that people bought 360s in the weeks running up to Tales too, and as far as I'm concerned, thats the reason for the diminished supply rather than the one week speak to 24k. IU in theory will be a smaller bump because of the state of the preorders (though preorders != anything near first week sales say 30% of the time).

So, overall I'm thinking something like 23k Wii (One Piece boost of maybe 2k from previous week), and 18k 360. The price drop went into effect on what day for 360? If it was say, Sept 5, then we'd see something like 3k week ending 8/31, 9k week ending 9/7, then 18k (double) for the week ending 9/14 on the price drop + game.

 

The price drop occurs the exact same day IU launches in Japan - 9/11/08. Thats why I am arguing a very acute bump in sales: A small rush for IU + X360's, demand for the console in general, and then new adopters due to the price cut, culminating in 1 very very good week, similarly to Ace Combat 6 last year, but better performance after the big inital push.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.