Here's another way of looking at it.
From Sept. 1 2007 to Jan. 1 2008 Wii sold ~8.3m.
Given that the Wii has upped production this year by ~30% you could see a ~30% increase in sales for the same time period or ~10.8m.
Wii stands at 31.6m now so, they should be at least at 42m by the end of the year.
However, if you realize that Nintendo started producing 2.5m a month back in May or so, and they have not been selling that many per month WW there is obviously stock piling going on, just like last year. So, I would actually anticipate more like 15m being sold during this Sept. through Dec. time period and hit closer to 45m as I stated above.
So for me I would see +45m by Jan 1. Then they will coast through another 5-6m through March and beat their forecasts by ~1m.







