Will the PS3 hit 11 mil consoles sold by year's end?

[Spectrumglr]

leo-j said:
Here is what I think

november at 6.5m
january at 9.0m
march (the price drop) 11.5m
july 08- 13.5m
end of 08- 20million sold....at this time we will see a $399.99 ps3..with all its features :D



END OF 2008 ESTIMATES

1.wii- loosing huge momentum around 24-26m

2.ps3- gaining momentum around 18-22m

3.360- loosing life around 16-19m

END OF 09

1.ps3-still holding momentum around 30-34m

2.wii- becoming a gamecube around 28-32m

3.360-last microsoft console around 20-24m

Why will ps3 sell better than wii and why will wii lose momentum?

The ps3 will drop to $399.99 in march, they always drop the price in march, if this occurs the sales will rocket to as much they have sold in the holidays. 3rd party will make more exclusives on the ps3 than on 360 etc...
Wii will lose momentum due to lack of thought for any new ideas, console owners may start getting bored of moving there arms every day to play a game.

360 will die just like genesis, and sega saturn, atari you name it, 07 will be the last of the great 360 years for sales

 

ok, have you ever considered the possibility that MS could answer to PS3 price drop? i think that for the whole 2008 standard Ps3 will be 100$ more expensive than x360 premium...and you have to consider the x360 core (quite appealing for casual gamers) that will be even cheaper (and 150$ or so between 2 products is something that definitely counts...especially when one of the 2 consoles goes under 200$: more than a possibility for x360 core during 2008).

As for the exclusives it all depends on this holiday sales: if PS3 doesn't manage to (consistently) reduce the userbase gap from X360 why in the world should a 3rd party developer decide to leave the X360 out? you should remind that x360 has already proved that a single high quality game can sell up to 5 million copies (GoW) over a user base of 10 millions (this leaving aside the fact that till now 3rd parties devs, apart from some exceptions, has probablay made money only on x360: how many PS3 games have WW sales in excess of 600k? how many games for x360 have sales in excess of 600k? you can draw conclusions)...to me this is enough for making a 3rd party developer thinking more than twice before leaving out x360, don't you think so? Thus my opinion is that X360 won't loose exclusive at least for the whole 2008...then time will tell but at least for the next year i think that from this point of view X360 is safe.

Finally: till you can't prove the oppsite there are still 6 millions more x360 and reducing this gap is not an easy task when you product costs at least 100$ more and hasn't any KA to date (proof? actually the gap hasn't reduced much from PS3 debut: Sony has definitely to work harder).

 

EDIT:

i almost forgot: MS is not SEGA...it's the biggest company in this market. Not an easy one to kill.