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I'd expect it to sell at least 2 million. It comes early in the Wii's cycle of life (unlike the previous two games, which both came out when their respective systems were either losing steam or close to death), it comes out at a time when Wii-owners are starting to look seriously for a new game and it is increasingly being hyped as the Wii's next big killer-app. And while the Paper Mario franchise in itself seemed healthy enough (the GameCube sequel outsold the N64 original), this new emphasis on 2D platforming should attract a whole new group of consumers, who loved the Mario Brothers 2D games, but who didn't know what to make of the Mario RPGs.