I only see two scenarios where Nintendo does not take first place this gen:
1. Blu-ray takes off and PS3 becomes a popular choice for Blu-ray buyers.
I don't think this scenario is very likely, but it's not impossible. While it looks like Blu-ray has beaten HD-DVD, it still has to beat consumer apathy. I think for most people, DVD is still satisfactory. PS2 offered DVD at a time when it was obvious that DVD was going to replace VHS - that's definitely not true for Blu-ray vs. DVD at this time.
2. Nintendo stops disrupting the market.
The strength of Wii is in its ability to deliver new game experiences. The system isn't selling out week after week on the strength of Twighlight Princess or Super Paper Mario. It's selling out because of Wii Sports (and because of how the games play in general). If Nintendo cancelled Wii Fit and Wii Music tomorrow morning and went back to making the exact same types of games it did on N64 and GameCube, then I'd be worried. I'm actually a little worried that neither of those games are ready for this Christmas - Nintendo may be in danger of losing that new market it's trying to build.
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