By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
noname2200 on 31 August 2008
Edit Thread
Squilliam said:
noname2200 said:
Squilliam said:
noname2200 said:

I see what you're getting at. But that would be grossly unfair to you, wouldn't it? The only shooter I can remember releasing last Q3/4 for the Wii was Medal of Honor (total sales to date: 230k), a lackluster performance that shouldn't be too hard to top by The Conduit (the only shooter I can think of releasing for the Wii Q4). By contrast, the HD consoles will have to top Call of Duty 4 (good luck with that!).

I like what you're trying to do, since it'll be a b**** to do things the way I proposed, but I don't think a single genre will be enough to cut it. How about we limit ourselves to just Q3 4?performance? That's the holiday season, when gamers are always out in force and publishers are doing everything they can to attract sales. It still won't be a perfect snapshot (I can think of a few objections already), but it seems like the most practical way to go about it. What do you think?

 

It would be foolish to compare the Wii to the HD consoles because there are too many different factors. I was thinking of just comparing the Xbox 360/PS3 of last year to the Xbox 360/PS3 of this year. I think it needs to be at least Q3 and Q4 though I can be flexible here, is that it evens out the game release calenders to give the comparison consistancy.

There are some important factors to think about IMO.

  • Did the situation for publishers get better in an overall sense the previous year?
  • How has the average sales per game changed over that time?
  • Are the sales distributed more evenly or are they even more tightly clustered amongst few titles?
  • How many titles were released last year compared to this year?
  • What is the overall sales in the shooter genre compared to last year?

We are coming to the close of Q3 so we could do a snapshot since I intend to do a half way analysis for my prediction in my signature anyway which would help to guide us through until the end of the year.

 

I see. It still makes more sense to me that include all games released in that timeperiod, rather than just those in one genre since there are just far too many variables that would impact one genre (Gears alone is going to shift millions of units for the shooters, for instance). Still if you want to go by Q3+4, I'd be more than happy to abide.

And actually, we're in fiscal Q2 for most companies. Fiscal years usually start in April, not January, hence my selecting Q3 rather than Q4 (Note though that this is not the way all companies do business, just the majority. Note the dates on the chart I provided earlier, which explains part of my skepticism that time will really improve things, since the chart was only four months out of date). Including the fourth quarter does seem wiser in retrospect, though, since more and more big games are coming out in January and February, to avoid the packing of the holidays.

I agree with the factors you listed, though, even if I want to broaden it up to all genres. Any objections?