TheBigFatJ said:
Ah, you're right. No denying that logic. It's open and shut. All the Wii has to do is outsell the PS360 by an average of 1 million units per month during September, October, November and December and it will reach 50%. As far as I know, the Wii hasn't accomplished that feat even a single time ever yet. And yet most of the people in this thread are predicting that the Wii will average that. Let's look at November+december+1 week January holiday season last year and see how the Wii did vs the PS360 during those two months: Wii: 6.345 million sales PS360: 3.727 + 3.389 = 7.116 million sales. So during the two holiday months last year, the PS360 outsold the Wii by 771,000 units. And yet you have people in here predicting that the Wii will somehow outperform them this year during the holiday season to the tune of 3 million or better. To do that this year, unquestionably, the Wii would have to have far better than a 10 million unit holiday season (November - first week of Jan). That also assumes the PS360 would have a miserable 7 million unit holiday season combined -- selling an average of 3.5 million in the two biggest months of the year, world wide, between them. That would be slightly worse performance than last year. And by all accounts, both systems should crush last year's holiday sales now: they're both cheaper, they both have a better line up. And both of their sales are drastically up year-over-year. |
You do realize that most of the people who believe in the 50% Wii Theory either aren't carefully reading your posts, or are conveniently ignoring your reasoning, which is pretty sound.
The theory basically relies upon both the PS3 and the 360 completely tanking (selling worse than last year) this holiday season when all indications are contrary to this.
Otherwise, the theory is relying upon sales of consoles that won't even be produced before the end of 2008 due to current production output.
