TW 07 -- System Seller?

[Li Mu Bai]

OriGin said: Jeez John, you continue to impress me with your insight. You popped the nail on the head. This is a massive problem that Nintendo has identified in Japan and why they say things like they are fighting against the waning support of the consumer in an up-hill battle. Remember when Iwata said that? A company comes out and posts one of the best launches of all time, with continued support and continued selling power, and he says that they are still fighting the dropping market. It's this philosophy which i'm trying to push... which in turn pushes towards the TW07 game being a system seller for Wii. I don't expect the first month sales for this game to come out and crack 1 million or 2 million units like a big hardcore game... it's not the type of game where there are enough people following it closely to do something like that... casual gamers or the 'new' market that Nintendo have created don't read forums and gaming blogs every day, they don't follow every single game until it's released... some people will start to adopt, and the word of mouth and 'playing is believing' philosophy will spread with it and the game will sell moderately, but it will sell moderately for a LONG time. John's example of Monster Hunter in Japan selling huge numbers in it's first week and then quickly fizzing out is the problem with the market, and shows that there is waining continued support. A lot of this is to do with the technological age coming about, where gamers know what is coming out and when and get it straight away if they want it. Why though is the Wii still selling so strongly in all regions?? It's certainly not because of any of the gamers that have been released since launch. I think Tiger Woods is the next system pusher that is going to continue the high system selling potential. I just don't believe MP3, SMG and Paper Mario are going to be the games to do this... they'll have the flash bang effect like all these other games lately. Smash big numbers, but then fizz down after the first month / couple of weeks. Wii Health Pack I think is going to be one of the hugest games ever... with the US and it's obesity problems these days and the possibility of excercise being made into a fun manner... can people imagine the penetration of a product like that??? It potentially has a 50% market penetration - I THINK - in the US. And sorry to seem off topic, but all these points are working for the same argument - if you can't see that then i'm just not explaining my point of view correctly. Sorry. Make sense better now?

What you have failed to realize however is that internally developed Nintendo released IPs rarely "fizz down" after the 1st month of release, they tend to have what's known as "legs." TP was released in Nov. & hasn't dropped below 100k as of yet, & with such staggering console sales this month is poised to only move upwards with a million+ already in tow. Wii Fitness & Wii Orchestra could both be phenomenal sellers, I alluded to as much. Will they outsell SMG, SSB:B, TP, the next Mario Kart, etc.? Did BT & BBA outsell NSMB, Mario 64DS, AC, etc? (in the west & europe) America is simply not Japan. People are obese here for two reasons: diet & sheer laziness. Expansion will undoubtedly occur with the release of games such as Wii sports, though being complementary to & not necessarily replicating the sales of the aforementioned already established software. The 2million+ sales I stated previously were simply the tip of the iceberg as far as SMG is concerned, SSB:B will eclipse even it imo. From what I know of MP:Corruption, you may be in for a surprise as well.