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A good point here is knowing just how much the market can support in terms of major consoles. The only generation to ever have close to an even split was the SNES/Genesis days to my knowledge. The last few generations, PS & PS2 have dominated while the 2nd and 3rd place finishers were far and away below them.

My opinion is that if you assume a completely profitable industry (not one that is subsidized by their parent company profits), the gaming market will support at most 1 winner and 1 runner up with near break even or slight profit. Look at last gen with DC/PS2/GC/Xbox, it was just too crowded, in fact it was so bad that DC died before the gen wars even started.