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For what its worth; I agree and think they'll have a hard time getting exclusives. If you don't have the worlds deepest wallet (allthough, MS do not have the capacity to spend unwittingly either, believe me) and prove unable to follow up on an insane success this is how it'll go in the end.
I also agree with makingmusic though; more 1st or 2nd party developers is a good thing quality wise and would ensure more quality titles land on the platform that are tailored for the hardware and the consoles' owners.