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Million said:
Using previous generations as a startpoint for what will happen in future generation already kills the credibility of your prediction.

The whole way to predict is to use a little thing called historical precedence my friend. Using history to debate the present and future are common place in law, industry and casual conversation. Without history we've got nothing to go on but what we've seen over short periods of time. Your argument lost all credibility when you argued that the only starting point with enough time under it's belt was not a good one.

In terms of games on Wii I somehow feel that it will manage to sell just fine with games that have long legs such as Wii fit and Mairo kart Wii and pent up purchases from supply issues as well as Animal crossing which is a fantastic Bridge game. The casual market tends to buy more stuff during the holidays season and they tend to slow down on the late summer early fall season, this has happened so many times.. it's easy to see why it hit wii harder than PS3 and 360.
News flash: Core gamers buy games steadily all year Casuals tend to go ebb and flow with seasons, they don't care if the games a year old when they buy it either so new releases aren't the only issue to calculate.

In short, I predict a good winter all around with a large boost coming back into wii into January where it will finally start selling more within the yearly norms but I also predict PS3 and 360 to do much the same. Good third party support finally cropping up for the wii will make it an amazing "me too" console for core gamers seeing as PS3 and 360 have a more same-ish experience than when either is compared to Wii. This alone could put it far ahead even disregarding the casual market that embraced the PS2 by and large and seem even warmer on the little white box.