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I'll give it a solid million.

We all know Sony is going to be promoting this game big time just like MGS4 and LittleBigPlanet. It will be the best looking game on the console market when it releases so that will likely give it a big push as well. However, Japan isn't a factor for this game like with MGS4, so I don't think it will reach it's numbers. In the end, it will come down to the reviews. If they're 89+ then it will sell a million.