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I think if Sony only moves about 25K units in Japan this week, I'd consider that failure. 40K would be reasonably successful.

As mrstickball pointed out, sales should be increasing over all due to the improved library. Price isn't as much of a problem in Japan where the PS3 is about $400 for the available 20GB version. I'm hoping for a consistent ~15K/week on slow weeks for the PS3. Big releases will help, but there are fewer big releases for the Japanese this year than there are for the US audience.

I can't believe how many people think Metal Gear Solid is a huge franchise in Japan.