Bodhesatva...I don't believe a monopoly will occur. This generation could prove to be the most egalitarian of them all. Granted, Microsoft and Sony might not put nearly as much money or processing power into their next systems, but they will rebound.
We cannot forget that gaming as a whole is bigger than ever. Nintendo's Blue Ocean strategy suggests it will only get bigger. My girlfriend is playing games now. She saw Nintendogs. It was over. Granted, she is an extreme casual, but she now can identify herself as a gamer...casual or not.
The same can be true with the older market that Nintendo has had much success with lately. Sony and Microsoft (or whoever decides to enter the next race Apple? Google?) will restructure and redefine themselves within the market. If there is anything that can be said about console wars it is that they are neither won nor lost in a single generation.
And I don't believe that handhelds are merging with consoles. Ask a DS owner how much interconnectivity there is between his touch screen and his Wii and he might not even have a clue what you are talking about. To my dismay there has been very little crossover between the two systems (or any handheld and its console counterpart). Yet the handheld market is alive and well. Even the PSP's limited success against the DS is success overall. 20 million units can not be misconstrued as failure. In fact, it suggests that the handheld market is capable of holding multiple competitors just like the console market.
I'm not saying this to say that my original claim is without its flaws; I'm only saying that your arguments against it don't seem to hold water. I think we both could be wrong. Ha!
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