A New and Unique Trend in Game Development And Publishing

[Final-Fan]

Bodhesatva said:

super_etecoon said:
Nintendo said early on that they were not competing with Microsoft and Sony. They said that they were going to create an underhorsepowered innovation that would be compelling to gamers and non-gamers alike. Time has showb this statement to be at least half true. Regardless whether Nintendo acted like they were picking a fight with the other two, everyone's a little ticked at the little duo cube that could.

But wait...there's more.
I like where you are going with this Final-Fan. But can we take it a step further? Given the amazing amount of capital that both Sony and Microsoft have, couldn't they function on two fronts at once? Sony, of course, has already proven this with the PSP. Nintendo has with the DS. What if Nintendo was right? What if they have created a new market?

Could we in the future see Microsoft and Sony release Next Gen systems that would compete either with the Wii or with the Wii 2 in the next generation? Will Sony and Microsoft try to reach the hardcore market with a more advanced system while pulling a Nintendo and releasing a last gen product with motion controls to join the newly created waggle market?

In essence this would be a three tiered video game market (four if you count arcades). Handhelds-Motion Sensitive- Old School Hardcore.

I think this is very unlikely -- in fact, I suspect the opposite will happen. The different markets have been converging gradually, with occassional changes and reversals like the Wii (Which has brought in a whole new market, and disrupted things).

I think within 15 years, we have less systems to choose from, not more. Someone is going to end up with a monopoly here. It's killing software companies and it isn't making much money for anyone but Nintendo right now.

A good example is the convergence of portable and console gaming. These are spaces that are gradually coming together, with Nintendo already linking their portable systems to their console directly, and one can imagine a future where a home system can afford to be small enough and sturdy enough that it can be packed up and moved around. The Wii is actually startlingly close to this already.

I think that that's only partially true, Bodhesatva. It might be true that we'll have fewer consoles in the future, but only if it's true -- as it seems to me to be -- that it's becoming more and more difficult for a new console to break into the industry as it gets ever larger. The Playstation had a slow start, but Sony had the money to see it through. The Xbox NEVER turned a profit, but Microsoft has a bottomless bank account. If one of the current console manufacturers goes under like Sega, will anyone replace them? It seems to be getting harder and harder, unless someone can make a soft entry into the market.

But I don't see consoles and portables ever merging completely. No matter how portable the Wii is, you simply can't whip it out at a bus stop and start playing. And if you thought the text in Dead Rising was hard to read on SDTV, try doing it on a 2-inch screen!

[edit: P.S. to super_etecoon: I don't count arcades because arcades are dead. It's very sad but very true. RIP.]