@xyrax,
Yeah you missed a lot of stuff I think. I won't speak for others but what I am saying is that attach rate is a factor not just a number they look at but probably a multiplier actually.
For example the analysis might look something like this....
(Install Base) x (Avg Market Penetration for Genre) = (Sellthrough Amount)
(Est. Cost to Produce) + (Est. Cost to Market) + (Est. Cost to Publish) = (Total Costs)
((Sellthrough Amount) * (Standard Game Price) ) - (All "Middleman" profits) = (Our Revenue)
(Our Revenue) - (Total Costs) = (Total Profit)
They do this type of analysis on all consoles they feel would be apropriate for the game and select which one(s) would be worth developing for. In the final stage they would determine the risks and benefits of the development of this new game and determine if they want to go ahead.
The problem is that it is hard to break out this formula every time someone brings this up, so for my part at least I was speaking in general since the conversation didn't appear to warrant in depth details on the methodologies used.
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