It's going to take Wii a long time to overtake 360 in USA

[johnlucas]

mrstickball said: All of this analysis ASSUMES that the Wii will continue selling at 100k+ what the 360 is doing at this point in time. I doubt this will continue year in and year out until the Wii catches up. The Wii has sold 1/2 what the 360 has in NA. Yes, thats great, but I dont see the Wii continuing to close that breakneck gap so quickly. In March-September, I feel at some point the Wii's sales will match 360 sales, then what ends up mattering is Oct-Dec, in which the 360 should win (price drop, Halo 3, GTAIV, ect).

Well Wii hasn't quite gotten to half quite yet. Approximately 40% at current standings. Oh I long for the day when that happens but let's not jump the gun yet. A fatal flaw I think many people make with Wii is this thing about "novelty wearing off" & "honeymoon phase to be over". They keep expecting the day when "people come to their senses" & Wii becomes a normal game console like all the rest. Maybe it's because I so-called "drank the kool-aid" (they only had flavor-aid the cheap bastards!) but I'll NEVER think of Wii as a "normal game console". It's anything but. A lot of people can't understand the Wii is because they don't see its ability to entrance people. This thing is a runaway train. I don't think people have accepted this yet. There ISN'T gonna be a real period of true drop-off compared to the competition. They will ebb & flow like all the rest but they will consistently sell big the whole generation. They ARE the 7th generation winners as much as many say that is too early to call. I called it. I foresaw what Wii would do for months before this launched. Years before it launched. Everybody else played it cautiously. I hate sitting on fences so I jumped off and said what I felt would happen. And everything I said came true. DS hasn't had a real drop-off YET since it got its momentum. ESPECIALLY in Japan. You need to understand momentum. It only gets faster the more time goes on. As much as XBox 360 has going for it, Wii has stone cold killers waiting for everyone this year that offsets that.

John - your numbers for the Wii are very decieving. Yes, the Wii has sold 2.3m units in 4 months, and extrapolating those numbers, would show the Wii to catch up very quickly, but it won't. 50% of those months were holiday months. Numbers are vastly inflated during November and December versus Jan through October.

Um, then XBox 360 would have gone through TWO Holiday periods, right? The recipient of vastly inflated numbers two times in a row according to your logic. And STILL they have only sold 5.83 million in Americas according to VGCharts.org.

Example: The Wii has sold an average of 520k units per month since November. At 520k units a month, the Wii should catch up rather quickly, as the 360 has averaged 355k units. However, the fact is, the Wii averaged 620k in Nov-December, then 423k in Jan-Feb, to which it will continue selling through March-September or even through October. Because of this, your numbers are wrong and deceitful.

Honestly I just kept it flat like I did so people can get an easy picture of how things may turn out. I believe Wii will sell much more than that in a 16 month period. MUCH more. In one of my first posts here (check my history) I said clearly that Wii will surpass the 360 THIS SUMMER in worldwide sales. And I totally stand by that statement. Lots of people don't believe me & are scared to go out on that limb. I'm not that chicken-hearted. I'll say it even when it's not popular. I said clearly that by end of year Wii's worldwide sales will see 20 million. 20 million in 13 months. So that 9 million something in 16 months comparison was purely for painting a easy to follow picture. I didn't mislead because I announced that these were constant rate hypothetical figures. Nothing stays constant like that. It all depends on games released, hype realized, supply in stores. Lots of variables. So I just put together a simple cross-reference. To me it's safe to OVERESTIMATE Wii not UNDERESTIMATE them (underestimating being a mistake that will prove to be haunting if it isn't already). They have delivered on their promise & claims made before this launch & it's paying off big time. The Wii is DS in console flesh. Twin systems based out of the same design philosophy. No way in hellfire and brimstone that the same type of success can elude the Wii. Those averages only work with preexisting footage, knowledge. It NEVER accounts for the phenomenal and uncanny. I always think 'people first' when making my claims. How will the people receive this? I think of how the people come in contact. I think on the social end to make my claims. I can't think average when it comes to Wii because is ANYTHING but an average system.

Lets assume the Wii sells through at 423k per NPD month (its average), which would mean it sells out through October. It'd sell 4.23m units from Jan-October + the Nov-Dec totals, we get just under 5.5m units sold through it's first year. Far better than the 360 did its first year, but the 360 has sold 5.6m units thus far. So even if the 360 didnt sell a single unit through October, the Wii would not catch up until November this year. Do you see my point?

Well didn't I say that Wii catches 360 THIS YEAR? Doing this in 2007 means it WON'T "take Wii a long time to overtake 360 in USA" as the thread title says. All this doesn't predict for the fact that Wii MAY improve its ability to get product on shelves and doesn't predict that demand MAY NOT ebb much even after supply is improved. This is what baffles everybody about DS Lite in Japan. It NEVER ends. All this time on the market and we STILL see sell-outs constantly no matter how much is on shelf. STILL lining up to get an update on a 3 year old system. Demand is beyond recognition. You have left the normal realm and have crossed over into the extraordinary. You can't use ordinary knowledge to comprehend the extraordinary. I've been reading VGCharts.org for months now & have been keeping up with these charts for a long time. I know they are very accurate in getting their data. The 360 has been inching up very slowly while I see Wii move to next million number practically every month. It was in the 4 range in January. It was in the 5 range in February. It will hit the 6 range in March. And it will most like hit the 7 range in April. 8 range for May. 9 range for June. It moves quickly while XBox 360 moves slowly up the numbers. It sells but at a much slower rate. There's no excuse for Wii catching XBox 360 this early already. 4 months is hardly enough time to make this big of a dent in the sales charts. XBox 360 has been out a whole year and MORE but it's about to be passed by a system that has been out LESS than HALF a year!

Lets use another formula: The Wii sells the 423k per month from Jan-October each year, then 620k per month in Nov-Dec. That's the 5.5m per year versus the 360's abysmal 3.2m first year year. Using that data, the Wii should catch up around January or Febuary next year. However, the 360 has nearly doubled it's sales this year thus far, and should reach closer to 5.5m this year - equal to the Wii. Therefore, the Wii would never catch up due to the 360s increased sales in November-December. But of course, those numbers are flawed, as the Wii will sell far more than an average of 620k per month in Nov-Dec this year.

Well there's a problem with that tally. They have already sold 5.5 million in less than 4 months. For them to then sell 5.5 million each subsequent year means demand has dropped signficantly. I know this was a hypothetical but those figures you put in there don't reflect how people gravitate toward each system. I look at things not from arbitrary number standards but reflecting on people's attitudes toward a product. The pulse of where things are. I put a number to match that desire. I look at averages as worthless honestly. I know ebb & flow happens but each month can be vastly different due to one game coming out. Look at PS3's & PSP's Japanese surge due to Gundam Musou & Monster Rancher. That opening week tally was ungodly! I think of games released and how people will buy them to calculate & project figures. And not just the big name titles either. I think of the sure & steady unsung heroes that move units. I look at the boxes in the stores and wonder how a person might be receptive to the game therefore buying a unit to play it on. Type of game and how it plays to determine how bystanders watching may be influenced to buy one themselves. I think of buzz factor. Hearing people of various walks talk about a product and checking the background of said people. Different age groups, genders, professions and the time those professions take up as well as nature of the work. I think of informed and uninformed customer alike. If certain hit games & good games are timely released it maintains a high sellout level & buzzfactor. I only look at existing figures to map out a direction.

So again, your numbers are critically flawed John. You can't use just base averages to determine when the Wii will overtake the 360. You have to use retail averages for calendar months instead of the normal averages. The 360 has had 16 months to have a good and bad average, whereas the Wii has only had good averages to compare. You can't use that math to work in reality. If you try, you'll find yourself at the other end of fanboy nightmares and wrong predictions.

Well I'll say this to that. Wii's bad average will not be that bad and that's why these sales figures will probably turn out in the extraordinary realm. DS's low point is STILL higher than anyone else on the charts on a usual day. You also fail to account for XBox 360 possibly losing popularity to slow sales further so Wii catches up. I don't use hard math necessarily to put together my predictions. I use math exercises to explain them but I use, yes, intuition...educated intuition based on looking at gaming from the social end. And the figures I come up with use history to make a direction while using the figure to match my reading of the people's desire or potential desire for the product. And only time can prove me right or wrong so I'll just have to be held to my words either way it turns out. These are my predictions: •Wii catches and passes XBox 360's Worldwide sales in the summer—I project for within the month of July for the exact month •Wii beats XBox 360's Americas region sales most likely in same summer in most likely same month. But definitely THIS summer and it goes without saying THIS year of 2007. •Wii will total at LEAST 20 million Worldwide sales by 11:59 PM December 31, 2007 AKA the end of the year. They may seem like hyperbole but I stand by those words...right or wrong. You'll just have to hold me to them. Either to laugh at me if they turn out to be wrong or to stand in awe at my foresight if they turn out to be right. You may not want to hear my predictions on the fate of Metal Gear Solid 4. http://www.popzart.com/?page=view&topic=267 That one was a REAL limbwalk for your butt but I stand by that one just the same. (boy they'll REALLY think I'm incredulous after that one! ) What can I say? I love the Nostradamus effect! John Lucas