Both systems certainly have major titles to publish this year, and I see a bit of an interval competition for the both of them in regards to the numbers.
I think the race for 360 and Wii this holiday will be a photo finish.
360 has the stockpiles of consoles readily available for this season, and depending on how many people, especially kids, out there want a 360 for Xmas despite the hardware problems, 360 could have the upper hand simply based on readily available hardware numbers.
It's a bit foggy right now as sales have declined some due to the announcements and admittance of problems from MS, but I think the likes of Halo and GTA will convince some, along with the three year warranty, to risk playing a system that will die at some point. Also I'm not sure who MS is trying to fool as "the general public" will only be buying the 360's this fall because their kids are harping at their parents for one from Santa.
I think the Wii will only be able to vault over the 360 permanently this year if Nintendo has been stockpiling Wii's for the last several months, and continues until the holiday season.
It's not like Nintendo selling out this holiday is going to be news. They will have a nice notch in their belt to claim virtual sell out for an entire year though. The problem for them to over take the 360 collectively will be having the numbers ready for the shopping sprees.
"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )
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