As most of you know by now, Nintendo has shipped 9.27 million Wii units by June 30, 2007. On the market for a year longer, Microsoft has shipped 11.6 million Xbox 360 units by June 30, 2007.
Sell through difference is likely around 600,000 lifetime (once Japanese data for the week ending July 22 comes in) at the moment. Cross over looks to be in 2-3 weeks.
In the coming weeks, Nintendo should continue to see strong sales of Wii as Mario Party 8 (Japan), Mario Strikers (Americas) and others continue to boost sales. Come August, Madden - for all systems, Metroid & Bioshock, and a number of small games should boost both Wii & 360.
Rumours of a 360 pricedrop may boost 360 sales in the Americas, but with no presence in Japan, and only a decent/not spectacular footprint in Europe, 360 would have to sell roughly 2.5x as much as Wii in the Americas to offset stronger Wii sales in Europe & Japan over the course of a month.
Halo 3 & GTA IV will certaintly be huge, but I imagine Nintendo will drop some bombs in Japan to make sure it is not outsold those weeks worldwide - whether those bombs are Galaxy (Japan), Brawl (Japan), Wii Fit (in Japan this year), Crystal Chronicles, Mario & Sonic, Nights (~400k on Saturn in Japan - Wii is actually successful), DDR, Opoona, Zack & Wiki, etc.
My point is, that since Nintendo expects to ship 22.34 million Wiis by March 31, 2008, it is not unreasonable to expect sales of 19-20 million by the end of 2007. If sales are stronger than expected (a distinct possibility), Wii could pass 20 million by the end of 2007 - and Nintendo would have to raise forecasts again (which would happen in October).
A Halo 3/GTAIV/Blue Dragon/Call of Duty 4/Rockband/Guitar Hero III USA holiday for the 360 is certaintly capable of 2+ million units in December. But given Nintendo that will have at least two of big three (Mario, Brawl, Metroid) out in all territories by the end of 2007 - along with ancillary hits such as Wii Health, Wii Play, GHIII, DDR, Zack & Wiki, Nights, Mario & Sonic and others - I suspect Wii can easily double 360 holiday sales in Nov-December.
While Sony has not released their updated outlook just yet, I now expect:
Wii - 2007 - 20 million (lifetime sales, ~17 million in 2007)
Xbox 360 - 2007 - 14.5 million (lifetime sales, ~7 million in 2007)
PS3 - 2007 - 7.5 million (life time sales, ~ 6 million in 2007)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
