Do we need an adjustment?

[Gobias]

bluesinG said:

colonelstubbs said:
Of course we need an adjustment. We have the same two issues:

The PS3 always seems to be undertracked.

And the 360 always seems to be overtracked.

I know ithe above comments are said all the time, but after this months NPD its not even funny anymore.

Wrong. Well, half-wrong. Here are the monthly VGC and NPD estimates for 2008, so far:

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Tot
VGC Wii	294	505	594	685	645	720	520	3963
NPD Wii	274	432	721	714	675	666	555	4037
Difference	20	73	-127	-29	-30	54	-35	-74
Percent	7%	17%	-18%	-4%	-4%	8%	-6%	-2%
VGC PS3	182	305	318	330	178	332	180	1825
NPD PS3	269	281	257	187	209	405	225	1833
Difference	-87	24	61	143	-31	-73	-45	-8
Percent	-32%	9%	24%	76%	-15%	-18%	-20%	0%
VGC 360	258	320	319	279	192	262	310	1940
NPD 360	230	255	262	188	187	220	205	1547
Difference	28	65	57	91	5	42	105	393
Percent	12%	25%	22%	48%	3%	19%	51%	25%

All table entries are in thousands of units. NPD entries are the NPD monthly estimates for the USA only. VGC entries are the VGC North America estimates, scaled by 90% to estimate the USA only. VGC entries are taken from the "official NPD threads," and so do NOT include any adjustments made by ioi AFTER release of the corresponding NPD estimates. A positive entry in the Difference row or Percent row indicates that a VGC estimate was higher than the corresponding NPD estimate, while a negative entry in one of these rows indicates that the NPD estimate was higher.

Conclusions:

1. So far in 2008, there have been NO SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES between VGC and NPD estimates for the Wii and PS3. Single-month differences between the VGC and NPD estimates for these consoles have tended to cancel out--almost perfectly--over time, as indicated by the essentially identical VGC and NPD entries in the Total column.

2. So far in 2008, there HAVE BEEN systematic differences between VGC and NPD estimates for the 360. Specifically, as indicated in the Total column, the monthly VGC estimates for the 360 have been higher than the corresponding NPD estimates by about 25%.

ioi is a 360 fanboy confirmed.