| colonelstubbs said: Of course we need an adjustment. We have the same two issues: The PS3 always seems to be undertracked. And the 360 always seems to be overtracked. I know ithe above comments are said all the time, but after this months NPD its not even funny anymore. |
Wrong. Well, half-wrong. Here are the monthly VGC and NPD estimates for 2008, so far:
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Tot | |
| VGC Wii | 294 | 505 | 594 | 685 | 645 | 720 | 520 | 3963 |
| NPD Wii | 274 | 432 | 721 | 714 | 675 | 666 | 555 | 4037 |
| Difference | 20 | 73 | -127 | -29 | -30 | 54 | -35 | -74 |
| Percent | 7% | 17% | -18% | -4% | -4% | 8% | -6% | -2% |
| VGC PS3 | 182 | 305 | 318 | 330 | 178 | 332 | 180 | 1825 |
| NPD PS3 | 269 | 281 | 257 | 187 | 209 | 405 | 225 | 1833 |
| Difference | -87 | 24 | 61 | 143 | -31 | -73 | -45 | -8 |
| Percent | -32% | 9% | 24% | 76% | -15% | -18% | -20% | 0% |
| VGC 360 | 258 | 320 | 319 | 279 | 192 | 262 | 310 | 1940 |
| NPD 360 | 230 | 255 | 262 | 188 | 187 | 220 | 205 | 1547 |
| Difference | 28 | 65 | 57 | 91 | 5 | 42 | 105 | 393 |
| Percent | 12% | 25% | 22% | 48% | 3% | 19% | 51% | 25% |
All table entries are in thousands of units. NPD entries are the NPD monthly estimates for the USA only. VGC entries are the VGC North America estimates, scaled by 90% to estimate the USA only. VGC entries are taken from the "official NPD threads," and so do NOT include any adjustments made by ioi AFTER release of the corresponding NPD estimates. A positive entry in the Difference row or Percent row indicates that a VGC estimate was higher than the corresponding NPD estimate, while a negative entry in one of these rows indicates that the NPD estimate was higher.
Conclusions:
1. So far in 2008, there have been NO SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES between VGC and NPD estimates for the Wii and PS3. Single-month differences between the VGC and NPD estimates for these consoles have tended to cancel out--almost perfectly--over time, as indicated by the essentially identical VGC and NPD entries in the Total column.
2. So far in 2008, there HAVE BEEN systematic differences between VGC and NPD estimates for the 360. Specifically, as indicated in the Total column, the monthly VGC estimates for the 360 have been higher than the corresponding NPD estimates by about 25%.
