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I can see one thing for certain, once the Wii secures that 50% marketshare, all the devs are going to have to buckle under the pressure of the market leader stability.

I expect that studios are going to start making ground-up Wii games instead of scalred down ports from the HD consoles, and it will also be the end of PS2 ports. Just like how 3rd party development buckled to the pressure of the DS by the start of the 3rd year, the time for 3rd party support for the Wii is arriving and will carry the system to a place untouchable by any other consoles.