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We had this same debate last year. I bet the Wii version would outsell the PS3 version based on those same assumptions - and lost.

I think the PS3 will again (narrowly) outsell the Wii for Madden '09 but by Madden '10 the Wii version will definately be stronger.

However... If EA markets All Play to the casual/non gamer football fans then the Wii version could easily outsell PS3's (who's market is limited to current Madden players migrating from PS2)