Tracking Missing/Low Other Data for X360 Games...

[mrstickball]

Dodece said:
This data should be used in the absence any other way to verify sales. The other markets sales cannot be made any less reliable through this process. In fact I welcome the prospect of actually getting something approaching full sales data for dozens of games which VGC cannot seem to be able to track in the other regions. Despite the fact that you know they are selling.

I think however your a little aggressive with your multiplier. I find it hard to envisage a 360 title in Europe tracking near the 360 titles sales in North America. Even Grand Theft Auto IV has tracked at about forty percent of North America. What I am meaning is to say is your estimates are too positive. Anything beyond fifty percent of North American sales should be discounted immediately.

A better multiplier would be have a percent. Use the MGC data multiply it by half a percent and then add the result to the MGC data. That should give you better data that is both conservative, and probably closer to reality. For example this would have Blue Dragon being just over 90,000. Which is closer to forty percent of North America.

I think you should use Grand Theft Auto as your measuring stick. That should define your limit for estimates.

My multiplier lies between 3-5x, which is below most American titles on the low end.

What games are you arguing are favoring PAL regions too much? Stranglehold, Blue Dragon, and Enchant Arms are the only 3 titles that have a higher-than normal ratio. Two Worlds, Overlord, and Eternal Sonata fit well within your 40% argument.

Grand Theft Auto merely proves my point in terms of MGC Accuracy:

 

Grand Theft Auto
North America		611661	3,800,000	6.21
Japan		7397	0	0
Other		317491	2,000,000	6.3
Worldwide		936549	5,800,000	6.19
VGC Ratio:		34.48%	PAL/NA Ratio
MGC Ratio:		33.90%	PAL/NA Ratio

There is a 0.5% difference between VGC's PAL ratio, and MGC's! That is amazingly close! Why is it that MGC tracks GTAIV perfectly, and all of a sudden, fails to track older games so imperfect, that I have to reduce the ratios even further?

What about games that ARE more popular in PAL territories, such as Top Spin 3?

 

Top Spin 3
North America		8323	41,171	4.95
Japan		88	0	0
Other		22463	196,554	8.75
Worldwide		30874	237,725	7.7
VGC Ratio:		82.68%	PAL/NA Ratio
MGC Ratio:		72.76%	PAL/NA Ratio

This number is quite a bit larger, in difference, than the GTAIV number, but it goes against your argument of 40% sales max. VGC is tracking Top Spin 3 as having a 82% ratio of PAL vs. NA sales, and MGC is undertracking it at 72%. Therefore, MGC is undertracking European sales, not overtracking them as you argue.

So again, I feel this is a viable method, and your argument made me go back, and do more research, which proves I my methodology is fine, and your idea of increasing PAL numbers by a percentage just would not work, as it doesn't tie in to an specific methodology of tracking sales...Games have different sales patterns, and thats why I gave a variable rate on the multiplier, to account for a minimum and maximum number.